ATP Monte-Carlo Semi-Final Predictions: Nadal-Tsonga, Djokovic-Fognini

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

1. Rafael Nadal v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga took advantage of Andy Murray's third round exit to progress to the semi-finals of the Monte-Carlo Masters.  Tsonga defeated Murray's conqueror, Stanislas Wawrinka, coming back from a set down to complete a 2-6 6-3 6-4 victory.  He now faces the unenviable task of playing Rafael Nadal, who was pushed to the limit by Grigor Dimitrov.  The Bulgarian continues to show a lot of promise as he earnt a set off Nadal, but eventually fell 6-2 2-6 6-4 in a 2 hour and 8 minute contest.  Nadal and Tsonga will square off for the 11th time; they have only ever played on clay once in Davis Cup and it was Nadal who came out on top in emphatic fashion, 6-0 6-2 6-4.  I really don't see Tsonga offering much resistance to Nadal on clay...

Prediction - Nadal to beat Tsonga in 2 sets

Novak Djokovic

2. Novak Djokovic v Fabio Fognini

There were three unseeded quarter-finalists, but only one of them took another step deeper into the tournament as Fabio Fognini reached his first ever Masters 1000 semi-final with another upset, this time over Richard Gasquet, 7-6(0) 6-2.  Fognini now gets a shot at the world number one, who was pushed hard by Jarkko Nieminen, but greater consistency and some moments of magic saw him through in a 6-4 6-3 victory.  Djokovic has won all four of their previous encounters although Fognini has managed a set in their last two match-ups, the most recent of those coming in Indian Wells earlier this year.  Fognini has had a stunning week, but knocking out Djokovic would be pretty epic...

Prediction -Djokovic to beat Fognini in 2 sets

ATP Monte-Carlo Quarter-Final Predictions: Nadal-Dimitrov, Wawrinka-Tsonga

1. Rafael Nadal v Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov

It has been business as usual for Rafael Nadal in Monte-Carlo with two pretty routine wins over Marinko Matosevic and Philipp Kohlschreiber.  Nadal beat Kohlschrieber, 6-2 6-4 in the third round, facing no break points on his serve.  Nadal's next opponent is the unseeded, Grigor Dimitrov, who has transferred his early season promise on hard courts to the clay as well.  He defeated Florian Mayer, 6-2 6-4 to back up an upset win over Janko Tipsarevic in round two.  Nadal and Dimitrov have played each other on one previous occasion in Rotterdam in 2009 when Dimitrov managed to push the Nadal to 3 sets.  The Bulgarian threatened Murray and Djokovic in the American tournaments in March, but couldn't take advantage of his chances.  I think he will show his talent once more, but I cannot see an upset on the cards...

Prediction - Nadal to beat Dimitrov in 2 sets

2. Stanislas Wawrinka v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Andy Murray was spectacularly dumped out of the Monte-Carlo Masters by Stanislas Wawrinka in a 6-1 6-2, 58-minute rout; I was annoyed with myself because I felt there could be an upset here as I loosely mentioned yesterday, but I didn't have the guts to go for it. Wawrinka now moves on to play Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who also had a rather easy time of it posting a 6-3 6-0 victory over Jurgen Melzer.  Wawrinka has lost just 5 games in his last 2 matches and looks to have hit a rich patch of form.  Tsonga will be a tough match though as indicated by the head-to-head; their last two matches both came at Roland Garros and saw the pair duel for five sets with Wawrinka winning in 2011 and Tsonga in 2012.  I think this could be an entertaining one and I am going for Wawrinka to win it...

Prediction - Wawrinka to beat Tsonga in 3 sets

3. Novak Djokovic v Jarkko Nieminen

It was another scratchy effort from Novak Djokovic, who lost the first set of his third rounder with Juan Monaco, but eventually came through ankle niggles with a 4-6 6-2 6-2 victory.  Djokovic now takes on one of the three unseeded quarter-finalists in Jarkko Nieminen, who has had to work damn hard to make it this far.  He beat Milos Raonic in a third set tiebreak on Wednesday and did it again with a mammoth effort to get past Juan Martin del Potro who served for the match, before eventually falling to Nieminen, 6-4 4-6 7-6(4).  Djokovic and Nieminen have not played since 2010 when Djokovic won in two tight sets in Basel.  Djokovic won't win this tournament with his iffy ankle, but he should have too much game for Nieminen.

Richard Gasquet

Prediction - Djokovic to beat Nieminen in 2 sets (1 tight, 1 easy)

4. Fabio Fognini v Richard Gasquet

Richard Gasquet continued his impressive season so far with a very solid win over Marin Cilic, 7-5 6-4.  He now takes on Fabio Fognini, who surprisingly took out Tomas Berdych and in straight sets too, 6-4 6-2.  Fognini had taken out fellow Italian, Andreas Seppi in the first round and certainly has credentials on the clay having made the quarter-finals of Roland Garros in 2011.  The head-to-head is not pretty for Fognini, who has taken just 4 games against Gasquet in 2 previous matches.  The only way Fognini will win this is if the scoreline gets tight and so does Gasquet...

Prediction - Gasquet to beat Fognini in 2 sets

ATP Monte-Carlo 3rd Round Predictions: Murray-Wawrinka, Djokovic-Monaco, Del Potro-Nieminen

1. Stanislas Wawrinka v Andy Murray

Stanislas Wawrinka

Andy Murray opened his clay court season with a comfortable 6-1 6-4 victory over Edouard Roger-Vasselin, beginning much quicker than some of his previous matches and facing no troubles in making the third round.  Murray will now face a significantly steeper challenge against Stanislas Wawrinka.  The Swiss number two took out Denis Istomin in the first round and then rather emphatically handed out two breadsticks in a 6-1 6-1 beatdown of Albert Montanes today in just 54 minutes.  

Murray and Wawrinka have a colourful head-to-head; Wawrinka has beaten Murray 4 times, twice of those on the clay although the most recent of those was 5 years ago.  Wawrinka has challenged Murray on the hard courts, most famously beating him at the US Open in 2010.  I don't really see any upsets on Thursday, but if you are feeling risky then this is probably your best bet... should be a tester for Murray.

Prediction - Murray to beat Wawrinka in 3 sets

2. Novak Djokovic v Juan Monaco

Novak Djokovic began in nervous fashion, quickly going down 0-4 before losing the first set, 6-4 to Mikhail Youzhny.  However he found his stride to come through in three sets against the Russian, 4-6 6-1 6-4.  Djokovic now takes on the Argentine, Juan Monaco who prevailed in the most dramatic match of the day; he took out Ernests Gulbis, 6-0 3-6 6-3, who received a game penalty in the third set for a string of offences including decimating his racquet and hitting a tennis ball out of the arena.  Gulbis's antics continue to overshadow his talent, but good on Monaco who is turning around his season in a big way.  I think Djokovic will find his mojo in this match at least, and ease into the quarter-finals.

Prediction - Djokovic to beat Monaco in 2 sets

3. Jarkko Nieminen v Juan Martin del Potro

It was a rough start to Monte-Carlo for Juan Martin del Potro who found himself a set and a break down to Alexandr Dolgopolov in his second round match.  However the Ukranian offered del Potro a route back into the match and he duly obliged eventually coming through, 1-6 6-4 6-3 for his first ever main draw win in Monte-Carlo.  Next up is Jarkko Nieminen, who knocked out Milos Raonic in a third set tiebreak.  

Marin Cilic

Based on Del Potro's first match, he certainly was nowhere near the form that took him to the final of Miami, defeating Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray along the way; however adjusting to the clay will obviously take some time.  This is a good match-up for Del Potro though, who has won all 4 previous matches with Nieminen not getting more than 4 games in any of the sets they have played.  Nieminen has no real weapons that can hurt the big Argentine and I predict del Potro will win this.

Prediction - Del Potro to beat Nieminen in 2 very tight sets

4. Marin Cilic v Richard Gasquet

Richard Gasquet booked his place in the third round after defeating Benoit Paire, 6-1 3-6 6-1 .  His next match will be against Marin Cilic, who comfortably eased past Kevin Anderson, 6-2 6-3, in what I anticipated to a much closer match.  Rather surprisingly, Cilic and Gasquet have never met on the ATP tour.  I struggled to call this match from the start and early form in Monte-Carlo doesn't make it easier.  I'm going to go with the form book and the higher ranked player in Gasquet to make the quarter-finals, favouring a touch more flair on the clay to prevail...

Prediction - Gasquet to beat Cilic in 3 sets

Best of the rest: 3rd round predictions

Tomas Berdych to beat Fabio Fognini in 2 sets

Grigor Dimitrov to beat Florian Mayer in 2 tight sets

Rafael Nadal to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in 2 sets

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Jurgen Melzer in 3 sets