Sunday, 12 August 2012

ATP Cincinnati: Preview and Predictions

The second of the ATP Masters 1000 events for the summer hard court season takes place next week with Roger Federer returning to action.  Lets take a look at the draw...

Roger Federer
PROJECTED QUARTER 1 - R.Federer v J.Monaco
Roger Federer is the number one seed in Cincinnati and along with the top eight seeds, has a bye in the first round.  Although he skipped Toronto, it has still been barely a week since his exploits at the Olympics, which clearly tired the world number one following a disappointing loss in the Olympics final.  He will play Jarkko Nieminen or Alex Bogomolov Jr. in the second round before a potential third rounder with Philipp Kohlschreiber.

There are a number of matches from Toronto that could be played out again in Cincinnati with this draw and one of those is a potential third round match between Mardy Fish and Juan Monaco.  The Argentine has recently broken into the top ten and will want to prove his credentials in Cincy.  Fish has performed well since returning to the tour following heart issues and will fancy his chances of reaching the quarter-finals having edged a three setter against Monaco in Toronto.

Prediction - Federer v Fish

PROJECTED QUARTER 2 - D.Ferrer v T.Berdych
David Ferrer had a great chance to go deep in the Olympics draw, but surprisingly came up short against Kei Nishikori in the third round.  He could get a chance for revenge if both players successfully reach the third round in Cincy.  Ferrer could take on Stan Wawrinka in the second round, meanwhile Nishikori has a testing opener against Marcel Granollers, who reached the quarter-finals in Toronto last week.

Tomas Berdych endured a horrid grass court season winning just one match in Halle and losing both his openers at Wimbledon.  Things did not improve much last week as he was ousted by Richard Gasquet in the third round of Toronto.  His draw does not look too promising in Montreal as he could meet Gasquet in the third round once more although the Frenchman does have a tough opener, in fact the toughest of all the first round matches against the Canadian serving monster, Milos Raonic.

Prediction - Ferrer v Berdych

Juan Martin Del Potro
PROJECTED QUARTER 3 - J.M. Del Potro v A.Murray
Juan Martin Del Potro enjoyed a marvellous Olympics campaign winning the bronze medal at Wimbledon.  He suffered an early exit in Toronto, but should be much fresher for Cincy.  He has a tough draw opening against the winner of David Nalbanidan and Tommy Haas (who also squared off in Toronto).  His projected third round opponent would have been John Isner, but it is now likely to be the winner of a first round clash between Lleyton Hewitt and Mikhail Youzhny following Isner's withdrawal.

Andy Murray was forced to pull out of his third round match in Toronto with injury, but it was a surprise he even turned up following a terrific gold medal at the Olympics.  His first match will be against either Sam Querrey or Jurgen Melzer.  In the third round, Andy Roddick could await the Brit although I fancy Julien Benneteau to upset Roddick, assuming he is back to full fitness.

Prediction - Del Potro v Murray

PROJECTED QUARTER 4 - J.Tipsarevic v N.Djokovic
It is a case of deja vu for Tipsarevic who could have to get past Marin Cilic and Novak Djokovic on his way to the semi-finals, two players he faced in Toronto.  Tipsarevic will play Pablo Andujar or a qualifier in the second round, meanwhile Cilic has drawn a qualifier or the walking bye on tour, Donald Young; therefore I expect Cilic and Tipsarevic to meet in the third round.

Djokovic will open his account up against Robin Haase or Andreas Seppi.  The Serb has shrewdly taken advantage of being the only top four player to reach the quarter-finals in Toronto where he was the defending champion from last year.  He has looked strangely subdued since his French Open final loss to Rafael Nadal, but I would expect him to feature late on in Cincy once more...

Prediction - Cilic v Djokovic

Final Prediction -N.Djokovic d. R.Federer

This is a tough week for predictions... Djokovic will be tired having played in Toronto, Murray had an injury in Toronto and then Federer will no doubt still be feeling the effects of the Olympics.  This week i'm going for Djokovic once again as I have a feeling Federer will not be in supreme form this week (I don't know why, just my feeling!).

Full predictions for Cincy can be found HERE

The womens draw is not released until tonight following the late completion of Montreal.


  1. I expect Ferrer Cilic final- Ferrer to win his first Masters and beat Federer for the first time in his 14th meeting

  2. Bold predictions... would very much like to see Ferrer beat Federer!