Monday, 3 June 2013

French Open Quarter-Final Predictions, Day 10: Tsonga-Federer, Serena-Kuznetsova

1. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Roger Federer
Roger Federer
The big attraction on Day 10 will be a barnstorming quarter-final between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Roger Federer.  Federer had an unlikely 4th round battle with Gilles Simon, coming back from two sets to one down to progress in a rocking Chatrier atmosphere, 6-1 4-6 2-6 6-2 6-3.  Tsonga could not have had it any easier in Paris as he has progressed into the quarter-finals with 12 straight sets and a very comfortable 6-3 6-3 6-3 win over Viktor Troicki in round four.   

The head-to-head is an interesting one as Federer leads 9-3, but Tsonga has had some joy over the Fed including that huge comeback from two sets down in the Wimbledon quarter-finals of 2011.  He pushed Federer hard in an attacking five set loss in Melbourne earlier this year.  I have always thought Tsonga doesn't like the clay, but he has done much better in the last two years.  Federer is definitely beatable and this could be a real scalp for Tsonga.  

I think its going to go one of two ways; Federer will either absolutely thrash Tsonga or the Frenchman is going to push him all the way.  I don't see any middle ground in this one.  My verdict though is a Federer win in epic circumstances...

Prediction - Federer to beat Tsonga in 5 sets

2. Serena Williams v Svetlana Kuznetsova
I have not featured Serena Williams in any of my previews purely because I have seen all her matches as a foregone conclusion.  Her 4th round match with Roberta Vinci was the closest of her first four, but she still came through comfortably, 6-1 6-3.  Serena now plays Svetlana Kuznetsova, which could easily be Serena's toughest match over the whole two weeks.  Kuznetsova beat Angelique Kerber, 6-4 4-6 6-3 in one of the best womens matches of the tournament so far.  I thought Kuznetsova would tighten up in the third set, but once she broke away at 3-1, she held firm and finished the job with a stunning winner.

Serena leads the head-to-head by 6 wins to 2; three of their last four matches have gone to three sets and Kuznetsova won their last match on clay at the same stage of Roland Garros in 2009.  Of course, so much has changed since their last match, but Kuznetsova's game on clay at its very best can certainly give Serena something to think about.  I think Kuznetsova will come out fighting and have nothing to lose, but I don't think she will be strong enough to win, let along grab a set.

Prediction - Serena to beat Kuznetsova in 2 sets (1 tight, 1 easy)

3. Agnieszka Radwanska v Sara Errani
Agnieszka Radwanska
Sara Errani was on the brink of exiting Roland Garros at 7-5 4-2 down in her 4th round match with Carla Suarez Navarro having struggled with a random bout of abdominal pain at the end of the first set.  However the dogged Italian dug in deep and managed to fight back as Suarez was once again unable to deliver in the key moments and bring home a big victory.  Errani now takes on Agnieszka Radwanska, who played her best match in ages to completely bamboozle Ana Ivanovic with her trickery, 6-2 6-4.  I put my hands up, I thought Ana would win this, but she just was not up to the task and will go home very disappointed.  Aga and Sara last met at the YEC in Istanbul when they played out a complete epic, which Radwanska won, 6-7(8) 7-5 6-4.  I'm in two minds about this match, the most indecisive I have probably felt about any match so far this week... based on Radwanska's R4 match and Errani's struggles, I'm going Aga...

Prediction - Radwanska to beat Errani in 3 sets

4. David Ferrer v Tommy Robredo
What a week for the Tommy Robredo, who came back from two sets down for the third consecutive time to defeat Nicolas Almagro, 6-7 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.  Robredo showed great fight, but what a mental checkout from Almagro who had leads in all three sets he lost.  It is the second time this year (remember against Ferrer at the Aussie Open) that he has had a complete capitulation.  Robredo now takes on David Ferrer, who has made a delightfully smooth progression throughout the draw without losing a set and his 4th rounder with an ineffectual, Kevin Anderson was perhaps the easiest of the bunch, 6-3 6-3 6-1.  Robredo has been fantastic this tournament, but Ferrer is in a different league to Almagro and should win this comfortably

Prediction - Ferrer to beat Robredo in 3 sets

I have had a really great tournament of predictions so far; I correctly predicted 7 out of the 8 mens quarter-finalists and 5 of the 8 womens quarter-finalists.  Moo's smiling for now :-)


  1. Love your insight and enjoy your predictions...don't ever change!

  2. Unlucky with federer moo, none of us could have predicted that

  3. Hi Moo, do you know any good websites for detailed tennis stats? Thanks

  4. La grosse surprise a été l'élimination de Federer...

    A. Radwanska qui pour moi n'aura pas la stature d'une gagnante comme Williams ou Sharapova

  5. I thought Tsonga had a shot but definitely didn't have the guts to say he would beat Federer. It is a surprise on clay and particularly the manner of the defeat.

    1. A voir si ce résultat (Federer) aura une influence dans tes pronostiques de Wimbledon ...