Sunday, 14 July 2013

ATP Hamburg, Bogota: Preview and Predictions

The ATP tour heads to Hamburg (Germany) and Bogota (Columbia) this week with much of the attention focused in Hamburg where Roger Federer is in action.

ATP Hamburg
Roger Federer
Following an early exit from Wimbledon to Sergey Stakhovsky, Roger Federer has made the bold move to play Hamburg and Gstaad, both on clay.  I actually think it's a good move from Fed, who has not played a great deal of tennis this year and finds himself at number 6 in the ATP Race to London.  Federer has a really tough draw to contend with in Hamburg and based on his recent form, I could see him falling early.  

Federer's first match will be against either Paolo Lorenzi or the big hitting, Daniel Brands, who took a set off Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.  Federer's first projected seed is Ernests Gulbis; the Latvian's form has tailed off of late, but he has still remained consistent compared to his past three years on tour.  Gulbis can waver, but he possesses the mentality and belief of challenging all the big four on his day.  In all three previous encounters with Federer, he has taken a set and even notched a win on clay back in 2010.  Gulbis was completely zoning against Rafael Nadal earlier this year in Rome, before eventually succumbing to defeat, 6-4 in the decider of an excellent third round match.

The second quarter of the draw could be brought to life by a potential third round dazzler between Jerzy Janowicz and Fernando Verdasco.  Both enjoyed career best performances at Wimbledon with Janowicz making a first Grand Slam semi-final, meanwhile Verdasco has just backed up a quarter-final run at Wimbledon with a final appearance in Bastad.  It is a remarkable turnaround for Verdasco, who has credited some of this recent success on a new racquet.  Tommy Robredo is also in this section and he will be particularly dangerous based on his performances on clay throughout 2013.  He did lose his first match in Bastad, but I think he will go very deep in this draw, taking out Jeremy Chardy in the third round.

Tommy Haas
Juan Monaco and Nicolas Almagro headline the third quarter.  Monaco faces the tougher draw as he could meet Gael Monfils in round two, who was starting to gather steam following a strong run at Roland Garros.  I would fancy Monaco to get past Monfils based on a 4-2 head-to-head record and playing on his favoured surface of clay.  Benoit Paire would be a likely third round opponent for Monaco.  Paire has had his fair share of meltdowns, but he is becoming a more consistent player on the tour and has had some good results on clay this year, most notably making the semi-finals of Rome.  Almagro meanwhile could come unstuck against Mikhail Youzhny in the third round; with a 0-5 head-to-head and some truly gutting losses this year, it's hard to think he would have the mentality to turn that head-to-head around if they did meet.

The final quarter features the number two seed, Tommy Haas and the number six seed, Andreas Seppi.  Haas fell in the quarter-finals of Stuttgart last week, but has a good draw for Hamburg, which on home soil, should give him the impetus to do well.  Haas's first legitimate test is unlikely to come before the quarter-finals where he could meet either Seppi, Marcel Granollers or Fabio Fognini, who beat him in Stuttgart.

1st Round Predictions:
Brands to beat Lorenzi in 2 tight sets
F.Mayer to beat Davydenko in 2 tight sets
Bautista Agut to beat Zverev in 2 sets
Andujar to beat Tursunov in 2 sets
Kamke to beat Rosol in 3 sets
Granollers to beat Bellucci in 3 sets
Ramos to beat Zeballos in 2 sets

Moo's Final Prediction - Haas d. Robredo

ATP Bogota
Janko Tipsarevic
The second ATP tournament this week takes place in Bogota on hard courts and is headlined by Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson.  Tipsarevic's name seems to appear on every drawsheet and along with Andreas Seppi, has played the most tournaments in his current ranking (28).  His first opponent will be either Ruben Bemelmens or the Columbian wildcard, Nicolas Barrientos in the second round.  Xavier Malisse and Edouard Roger-Vasselin are also in the top half and along with the winner of a first rounder between Vasek Pospisil and Michal Przysiezny, will be the biggest threats.  Kevin Anderson should have an absolute ball with this draw and is easily the best player here.  Igor Sijsling and Adrian Mannarino both had good results at Wimbledon and should meet in the quarter-finals. 

1st Round Predictions:
Ebden to beat Wang in 2 tight sets
Przysiezny to beat Pospisil in 3 sets
Bedene to beat Duckworth in 3 sets 

Moo's Final Prediction - Anderson d. Malisse


  1. My predictions

    Federer vs. Flo. Mayer
    Janowicz vs. Robredo
    Monfils vs. Youzhny
    Fognini vs. Haas

    Flo. Mayer vs. Robredo
    Monfils vs. Haas

    Robredo def Haas

    Tipsarevic vs. Ebden
    Viola vs. Duckworth
    Mannarino vs. Karlovic
    Giraldo vs. Anderson

    Ebden vs. Viola
    Mannatino vs. Anderson

    Anderson def Ebden

    1. Interesting, we shall see who got closest come the end of the week.

  2. Nice call on Viola in Bogota 1st!!

  3. I really love your blog Moo! My blog is no where near yours; keep up the nice work! Also, I really hope Federer can start playing better. He is really starting to worry me...:(

    1. Cheers, Chris.

      I think it will be an interesting week for Federer, apparently he's playing with a larger racquet. He's got a tough section of the draw and Brands won't be easy tomorrow.