Thursday, 4 July 2013

Wimbledon Mens Semi-Final Predictions, Day 11: Djokovic-Del Potro and Murray-Janowicz

Novak Djokovic v Juan Martin del Potro
Finishing within 10 seconds of each other, Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro won their quarter-finals to set up a dazzling Wimbledon semi-final.  Del Potro looked on his way home after the first game as he went down on the grass clutching his knee; however some "magic pills" did the job and he produced a staggering level of tennis to defeat an equally crocked David Ferrer, 6-2 6-4 7-6(5).  The match point was simply sensational and is one that will replayed again and again.  Djokovic was certainly tested in the first two sets of his quarter-final with Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player struggled mentally to cement his openings, notably losing a double break lead in the second set.  Djokovic won 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3 and like Del Potro, has yet to drop a set all tournament, which I believe is a record in the Open era... something  though has to give.


The amazing match point in the Ferrer-del Potro quarter-final

Djokovic and Del Potro have played each other 11 times with Djokovic leading the head-to-head with 8 wins to 3.  Del Potro did win their last encounter, a pulsating three setter in Indian Wells and he also won their only encounter on grass, which took place in the Olympics bronze medal match last year  I think that a fully fit Del Potro would go into this with a 50/50 chance, but you have to take into the account that Del Potro has significant injury concerns and anything that will affect his movement, Djokovic will exploit.  I think Del Potro has a much better chance than Ferrer would have had in threatening Djokovic, but based on the circumstances, the world number one is my tip for the final.


Prediction - Djokovic to beat Del Potro in 4 sets

Jerzy Janowicz v Andy Murray
Five set epics have been pretty non-existent at this year's Championships so it seemed fitting that after three quarter-finals all were decided in straight sets, the final one went the distance and got every British fan on the edge of their seats.  Andy Murray came back from two sets down to beat an at-times inspired Fernando Verdasco, 4-6 3-6 6-1 6-4 7-5.  I actually thought it was not a great match and apart from the drama at the end of the 5th set, I lost interest through the first three sets.  Verdasco delivered up some clutch serving and an all round impressive performance, but Murray got through this by the skin of the teeth and he was not at the races in the first two sets.

Murray now takes on a first time Grand Slam semi-finalist, Jerzy Janowicz who edged past fellow Pole, Lukasz Kubot in a tight three setter.  Janowicz was an emotional wreck at the end and I do wonder what his reaction will be if he reaches the final.  I can just imagine that the UK media will be bigging up Murray's chances against a "nobody".  I have no doubt in saying this will be an incredibly tough match for Andy.  Janowicz is a huge server, who has a perfect game for grass and in addition, he has the experience of beating Andy on his way to the final of the Masters 1000 event in Bercy last year.  Janowicz has really impressed this week and I actually did contemplate the winner of this one hard...


Prediction - Murray to beat Janowicz in 5 sets

10 comments:

  1. Another 5 setter wouldn't bode well for Murray should he make it to the finals-but he is one of the fittest and srongest players out there.
    I missed all matches with Del Potro...Is he really that injured? He didnt look so in the this MP clip and the fact that he bageled his opponent in the last set of the same match where he had the accident seems hardly an injury? Anyways Del Potro causing an upset is always a fresh and vitalizing experience. He should arrive to the final...my reasoning? cuz in the women's final they're both libras like Del Potro and the men's finals deserves one too. Del Potro has to make his contribution of an upset in this tournament and Ferrer shouldn't count. The no.1 Djokovic has been standing wearily on the tightrope for long enough. I mean look at his unforced error count-he's being extra caurious. Del Potro give him a nudge-English crowd should get involved as well. It will make it all the more sweet should Andy beat an Argentinian in the final or bitter if he loses...In any case nice for the men's draw to see different faces winning these trophies.

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  2. Remember the Olympics right? Novak's patriotic chest pumping 'n all? what's his tac this time? Its hard to ignore and forget just the parts you want to. Del Potro is much more potent on grass vs Novak than on hard. His thunder bolt forehand dictates plays and Novak will feel pressured to take more risks.
    Novak's exposing Del Potro's lack of baseline coverage doesn't work as well on grass as on hardcourts and Del Potro has been working to steadily improve that weakness anyways. Djokovic might get nervous and give away a free early set-which can be fatal. And hopefully so...because...well I actually at times dislike Novak-like tomorrow,today.

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  3. in spiote of the head to head record,mentally Del Potro never had an issue with Djokovic-it was always mostly about tactics and preparedness so if epic Del Potro shows one of those displays of epic survival which he should in this scenario it will put some extra pressure on Djoko and maybe turn the tables in his favor. Plus at this stage there are some ghosts that will appear over Djoko as the cast is pretty much the same as last year's grass tournaments-esp at the Olympics namely the English crowd,Del Potro and Murray-and for sure Djoko won't be oblivious to it. If he starts well he could erase a lot of that but if he's losing he could spiral downhill and give away too much.

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  4. semi finals: Djokovic in 5 murray in 5
    Final: Djokovic in 5

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  5. Replies
    1. am i wrong?

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    2. Djokovic in 5 Murray in 4
      so far 3 out of 4 not bad

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    3. Janowicz was leading 4-1 in 3rd set.then he gave 5 sets straight away.if the player made many mistakes so you may get wrong on your prediction.anyway lets see the Final.if Murray starts the game as he did against Verdasco and Janowicz then surely Djokovic will take the first and second set.after that Murray will get in trouble.once Djokovic leads 1 or 2 sets its almost impossible to come back.I still think 60% Djokovic in 5 or 40% Djokovic in 4.

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  6. I think Djoko in 4 or Murray in 5. If the game goes to 5 I think the home crowd will be a big advantage for Murray-ofcourse he might choke from the pressure but in the 5th both players will be plenty warmed up. Its frustrating if your a Murray fan to see him playing passive tennis like he did in those early sets he lost to Verdasco and Janowicsz. Also he has a danger of falling back to level when ahead a set esp against his top rivals-Djoko,Fed etc. Djoko looks like he's in excellent shape and playing his best tennis but somehow I feel something influential outside of the 2 players in this final? its strange-also why are all these people predicting Murray to win? thats also strange...the English crowd,fate,destiny,Murray wants this Wimbledon so badly but Djoko is a great champion who just came out of a very tough match to lose in RG final so won't want to lose again. But Murray wants it sooo badly and so does the English crowd. Thats what Djokovic has to battle-more than just Murray and also has to be fresh from DelPotro match. Very tough situation but for Djokovic its possible.

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